Housing fund liquidity risk once again highlighted, reform is urgently
mm round from Nanjing policy tightening housing provident fund loans Speaking
Jie
Executive Director of Housing Policy, Fudan University
the author around the country last November vigorously when opening housing provident fund loans, in re-tighten lending policies have made a forecast scenario. As expected, the judge soon to be fulfilled. broke out in Guangzhou and Nanjing have the phenomenon of housing provident fund into deficit, Nanjing is forced to fully tighten the housing provident fund loans policy. At the same time, I believe that the scene of the Nanjing and Guangzhou tip of the iceberg, many cities, including Shanghai, in the housing provident fund management and operation have the same potential liquidity risk.
such as the Shanghai Housing Fund during the first half of this year imputation the amount of 15.736 billion yuan, an increase of 24.94%, an increase in the high range in recent years. But the amount of 8.482 billion yuan over the same period extraction, the amount of 22.939 billion yuan a loan payment, an increase of 111.50%! That is, the Shanghai housing accumulation fund inflows and outflows of funds there are huge from brewing since August had to stop direct payment of a loan, and to tight gates, of which the performance of a roller coaster, not only exposed the operation and management system of housing provident fund of funds led to small geographic segmentation, regional supply and demand imbalance, poor resistance to the drawbacks of systematic risk, but also reflect the lack of housing provident fund management center professional financial risk control and predictability of supply and demand for funds is not strong, a loan policy is too arbitrary. Since housing fund center is just over a public institution, has to run the billions or even tens of billions of the operation and management of funds in capital security and there is inherent risk control has been hidden. The exposed only one aspect of liquidity risk.
I have been advocating for the housing fund, must coordinate regional pay scale, increase the national co-ordination against the risk of the use of scale and services to more residents need. necessary and feasible reform is to turn around the current decentralized system of gradual transformation of the housing provident fund integrated into a unified national policy of housing financial institutions specialized in the implementation of the policies of government regulations on the basis of the housing finance business and strict implementation of norms of risk management and internal control mechanisms. It should be emphasized, to form a unified national system, local affiliates in the business management to local conditions can have certain rights and freedom of suicides, but still need the National Center for and operating principles of unity, more importantly, funding to implement the national centralized scheduling, in order to strengthen the overall ability to resist risks.
Specifically, the author advocates, housing provident fund loans and investments of the public must first summary fund balance to precipitate a national center, and then through a bank or an intermediate carrier mm construction and management of public housing companies, commissioned by focusing on form, not by the decentralized operation of local housing provident fund management institutions. Local housing provident fund management institutions are public institutions, No risk identification and management. the establishment of the National Center funds can be used to co-ordinate remote scheduling, increased ability to resist risks. while retaining the basic framework of local management, not only the flow of accounts can be in different places, local funding is also available cross ( paid) circulation. at the National Centre under the aegis of positions around the center for short-term borrowing and long-term funding of paid financing. This is to prevent the risk of liquidity around, but also necessary to improve the efficiency of fund utilization means. dispatching centers in the country under the operation of the sediment Housing Fund of the investment can be more specialized and diversified.
See fund policy fund this year's The �ߵ���, and the couple re-apply for either of the loan fund, the credit lines are reduced to half of loanable amount. Nanjing Zhang Mingyuan, deputy director of fund management emphasized that the current implementation of the individual up to 30 million, most couples 600,000 yuan of the fund ceiling unchanged.
Background 2: According to ;, Yuan, need to call in previous years, the amount of imputation to meet demand. feel the amount of housing fund of funds This year showing the explosive growth in previous years, the mortgage fund's loan volume accounted for about 10% of the total loan amount, and this year it accounted for 20%. the face of dilemma, the Guangzhou authorities to seek financial balance at the beginning. news shows, Guangzhou is gestation housing fund new requirements: Provident Fund on a monthly extract, but account for half of domestic demand to retain the deposit amount; withdraw all fund transfers to pay, are not allowed to withdraw cash; workers or their spouses and minor children of families suffering from serious diseases caused by hardship, may apply extraction; and Guangzhou to buy their homes outside the extraction of the housing provident fund, employees of the purchased property shall be my domicile, work, or domicile of the spouses work in terms of .4, triggering the most controversial is the keep half the deposit account the amount of domestic demand. Fund will make ends meet you
mm makers hoped suddenly increased, but the supply source of funding is insufficient to cover the crisis may occur]
most recent past, many local governments introduced policies to stimulate demand for housing. which is notable that provisions of the provident fund loans adjustment of the local government invariably become important measures to stimulate housing demand.
such as Beijing, Tianjin, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Changsha, Fuzhou, and many local governments to fund loan as down payment down to two ( purchase price of Beijing housing provident fund loans used to ensure minimum down payment is 10% of the room), a substantial increase in credit lines, the current general have reached a maximum of 60 yuan / household (Beijing maximum limit of 80 million), most of the loan period stretched to 30 years, many places the age of the lender significantly relaxed. Chengdu, Shenyang and Henan have also released a remote Fund loan application.
worrying
housing fund liquidity is well known that housing demand is very dependent on the financial tool, the interest rate sensitive. As the housing provident fund loan interest rates based on policy, and commercial mortgage loans is always there is a certain gap between the provident fund loans or margin of preference is obvious. To this end, many local governments want to housing provident fund loans Housing Demand in driving play a role.
more importantly, banks change the rules of housing loans is still firmly in control of the power of the hands of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, all commercial banks, credit risk control for their own needs, the rules for loans adjustment is very cautious, very difficult to intervene in local government. But the use of housing provident fund has been under way on the local housing fund center, the local government can directly influence and control. And the housing provident fund after these ten years of steady development, but also accumulate a very substantial pool of assets, such as the end of 2007 the balance of housing provident fund deposit of up to 960.5 billion yuan, housing provident fund centers in developed regions have the scale of tens of billions of capital, such as Beijing reached 70.3 billion yuan at the end of 2007.
Here I am very concerned about is around the center of the housing provident fund or local government use of housing provident fund loans in changing the rules, the adequacy of housing provident fund of funds considered a security issue? Here I discuss the liquidity of the housing provident fund security.
To some extent, the housing provident fund deposit with the bank have some comparability, not all lending money imputation, we must maintain a balance that is sufficient liquidity to meet depositors are now required to mention the future, or if payment can not cope requirements, there will be the credibility of bankruptcy. Chinese commercial banks in lending strictly bound by the CBRC, in addition to the statutory deposit reserve rate (currently 17.5%), deposit-loan ratio (loans to deposits ratio and absorption) are shall not exceed 75% of the root of the red line.
denied until last year, most of the local housing fund centers for various reasons, mainly a lot of credit constraints, resulting in favor of the housing provident fund money is idle, the precipitation rate in high. from the country as a whole, the end of 2007 a loan rate (individual housing provident fund loans accounted for the balance of housing provident fund deposit ratio imputation) only 52.83%, after deducting the necessary financial resources in the precipitation of allowance funds to 218.655 billion yuan, precipitation accounted for the balance of funds deposited in the proportion of 22.76%. But the regional distribution is very uneven, although some inland regions such as Hebei and the central end of 2007, a loan rate of only 27.33% in 2008 to 35.51% at the end of 10, but there are many areas In particular, the developed coastal regions of the housing fund of funds in the chain is actually the situation more tense.
I order according to local fund executive bulletin found the end of 2007 a loan of Hangzhou was 78.4%, Tianjin end of 2007 a loan rate of 81.3 %. the same period was 83%, Nanjing, Suzhou is 84.26%. Shanghai end of 2007 was 86.3%. Currently the information available to the author knowledge, the highest rate of housing provident fund loans to the city of Changzhou. Changzhou end of 2007, a loan rate of 95.63%, The proportion of urban areas as high as 97.73%. such a high rate of housing provident fund loans, means that capital flows are likely to make ends meet, will make the local housing fund to pay greater risk of facing a liquidity risk mm. but even these places, in the near future wave of government bailouts are also unambiguous, still have an active housing provident fund loans issued to relax the conditions to stimulate the housing needs of policy adjustments. In this way, these areas center housing fund liquidity risk inherent in being one step beyond the critical level of risk.
Although housing fund to cash and paid the policy due to various constraints, as ordinary commercial banks so convenient, the recent long-term capital outflows are relatively few measurable and controllable, but it is still the risk of liquidity can not be ignored problem.
outflow from the housing fund, in addition to paying people to meet the housing purchase loans for goods demand, pay people still entitled to the storage of individual housing provident fund account balance for the purchase of individual housing construction , overhaul, refurbishment and other housing-related purposes, many places can now be used rental housing. and once retired, retirement, and so completely lost the ability to work due to leave, moving to other cities and exit, and cancel the account of the so-called extraction, account balance can be done are all extracted. With an aging population and urban migration accelerated, this part of the case continue to increase the pressure to pay the National Housing Fund .2007 extraction amounted to 180.878 billion yuan, accounting for the amount deposited in the same period of 51.05% .2007 Shanghai were extracted for various reasons the housing fund and the amount of additional housing fund 14.738 billion yuan, while the total amount of funds that year �鼯 only 23.189 billion yuan, accounting for 64% share of extraction. Considering the new year in Shanghai release of personal loans 28.794 billion yuan (12.16 billion yuan over the same period withdrawn from circulation), extraction and new loans Taken together, the 43.532 billion yuan, exceeding the amount of 20.3 billion yuan that year imputation, only one new issue personal loans to exceed the amount of 5.605 billion the year imputation element.
In addition, the supply of funds from the housing fund inflows, the recent and long-term conditions are not very optimistic. Loan demand is often developed coastal areas, but these areas have very high coverage of the housing provident fund, to more than 70%, deposit rates are also high levels of 7% to 12%, not much room for future growth in the amount of imputation. especially in this year's severe economic situation, the amount of imputation will be more sluggish growth.
2007 Last utilization of the National Housing Fund (individual extract the total amount of personal loans and the purchase of government bonds accounted for the balance of the total deposit ratio) reached 74.58%, when the housing provident fund withdrawal amount and the amount of personal loans and for 401.035 billion yuan, deposit the amount of 46.743 billion yuan over the same period exceeded. This means the end of 2007, nationwide, housing fund additional capital needs are more than new supply. of course, is also withdrawn from circulation each year, loans, no capital deficit of imputation , but has shown a more intense liquidity risk.
So, when large parts of the housing provident fund loans adjustment and use conditions, loan demand, If, as the policy makers hoped suddenly increased, but the money supply sources are inadequate, to payments crisis is likely to occur.
System of
fact, a long time, local governments / Housing Fund Center policy adjustments on the local housing fund with a certain arbitrariness, and less considered as a separate housing fund of funds operation of the system would have the inherent requirements of proper risk management, credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and other aspects of mechanism design is not a scientific, risk prevention and management is simple and rough.
current housing fund system, there is a big The problem is that around the center of the housing provident fund their own way to operate independently. but all over the loans and the use of different needs, when some areas of housing provident fund in excess of idle, but also a serious shortage of capital supply in many areas. Meanwhile, the operation of the city as the unit imputation the limited size of the deployment of capital flows is not the case, poor ability to withstand systemic risk.
In addition, although all around the center of the housing provident fund holds huge amounts of money, but everywhere as the administrative units to manage. internal control mechanism is very fragile, major corruption cases have occurred.
author, but also a lot of research scholars who have recognized the housing provident fund, housing fund is currently exposed in risk prevention, supervision and management issues, in fact, are connected, housing fund is derived from the nature center positioning. Basically, this is how to treat financing of housing provident fund system problems. China's housing accumulation fund system has accumulated a very large pools of capital under the scale, and large-scale in personal loans this financial services, is not subject to the CBRC or any sector of the financial regulatory constraints. This phenomenon has historical reasons, but now the situation can no longer be allowed to continue. housing fund center in the end what kind of institutions? government sector agencies ? administrative units? If you are still positioned at this level, it is difficult to solve the housing provident fund risk and internal control mechanism to prevent the problem. because the government agencies and institutions and a financial institution is immune to the risk management needs, but not easy to have an independent and sound principles.
In fact, within the domestic real estate circles, and the relevant government departments to discuss the reform of the housing provident fund has been for some time. The author's basic view is necessary and feasible reform is to turn around now dispersed housing accumulation fund system integration and gradually transform into a unified national policy of housing financial institutions specialized in the implementation of the provisions of the policy of the government housing finance business, based on the strict implementation of norms of risk management and internal control mechanisms. It should be emphasized, to formation of a unified national system, local affiliates in the business management to local conditions can have certain rights and freedom of suicides, but still needs the operation of the National Center and the principle of unity, more importantly, funding to implement a unified national centralized scheduling, in order to strengthen the overall ability to resist risks.
(The author is Associate Professor of Industrial Economics, Fudan University School of Management)
after I January 9 this year, Bowen wrote, risks need vigilance,
Recently many local governments to stimulate the housing needs of residents, coincidentally the provisions of the housing provident fund loans was substantially adjusted. the main measures include reducing the down payment loans to fund the two into (Beijing minimum down payment of 10%), a substantial line of credit increased (up to 80 million Shanghai, Beijing, up to 1.04 million), loan term generally stretched to 30 years, in many places the age of the lender significantly relaxed. some places are opening a remote fund loan applications. < br> These policy adjustments in the end will have much demand for housing throughout the stimulus effect remains to be seen, however, I was concerned about, if the implementation of these policy adjustments properly, may contain a considerable financial risk, especially Housing Accumulation Fund Center liquidity risk.
housing provident fund loans and deposits with commercial banks in general is very comparable to deposits and loans, all loan funds were not imputation, we must maintain a balance that is sufficient liquidity to meet depositors for future possible to cash requirements, or can not cope with payments once the balance of funds required, there will be the credibility of bankruptcy. current Chinese commercial banks in lending strictly bound by the CBRC, in addition to the statutory deposit reserve ratio for deposit-loan ratio (issued loans to deposits ratio and absorption) are not more than 75% of the root of the red line. In the past the domestic financial sector are that this is too conservative, but this financial crisis came, this piece of the system is considered to be the reason why China has maintained financial institutions relatively stable and sufficient liquidity to ensure that important systems.
though undeniable, from the country as a whole, the housing fund of funds is widely considered the situation in too much idle, sedimentation rate is relatively high. the information the Ministry of Construction, National Housing Fund in late 2007 �鼯 deposit balance of 960.5 billion fund, a loan rate (individual housing provident fund loans accounted for the balance of housing provident fund deposit ratio) was 52.83%, after deducting the necessary financial resources in the precipitation of allowance funds 218 655 000 000 dollars. but very uneven regional distribution, in most central and western provinces of housing accumulation fund a loan rate of less than 50%, as less than 30% of Hebei Province, even when the city of the eastern coastal areas of the housing accumulation fund loan-rates generally exceed 75 % or more, which means that the housing fund of funds in these areas is actually a chain of very tight conditions in the comparison or.
in the fund throughout the year based on the collation of the implementation of Bulletin, the author found that the end of 2007 a loan of Hangzhou was 78.4% the same period a loan rate of 81.3% in Tianjin. 83%, Nanjing, Suzhou was 84.26%, Shanghai 86.3%. the information available to the author knowledge, the highest rate of housing provident fund loans in Changzhou city is the end of 2007 a loan was 95.63%, the proportion of the urban area as much as 97.73%. such a high rate of housing provident fund loans, means that capital flows are likely to make ends meet, will make the local housing funds face greater liquidity risk.
to know, from the Housing Fund of the outflow channels, in addition to the obligation to pay people for goods to meet the housing needs of home loans, but also need to pay the person to respond to individual housing provident fund account balance for the storage of personal housing purchase, construction, repair, renovation, etc. Other housing-related purposes, many areas can be used for rental housing now, and even in Shanghai, can apply for housing funds to subsidize the extraction of hardship. and once retired, retirement, and so completely lost the ability to work due to leave, moving to Other cities and exit, and cancel the account of the so-called extract, is to do all the account balances can be extracted. With the aging of the population and urban migration accelerated, situation in this part of the payment pressure continues to increase .2007 extraction of the National Housing Fund amounted to 180.878 billion yuan, accounting for 51.05% over the same period the amount of deposit; housing fund rate (total extract individual, personal loans and the purchase of government bonds accounted for the balance of the deposit balance ratio) reached 74.58%; current housing provident fund withdrawal amount and add a personal loan and the amount of 401.035 billion yuan, exceeding the deposit amount of 46.743 billion yuan over the same period. This means the end of 2007 across the country, demand for new housing fund of funds have been more than new supply. of course As the annual credit is also withdrawn from circulation, there is no imputation of deficit financing, but has shown a more intense capital chains. Shanghai and other eastern cities of the housing accumulation fund ratio of capital outflows and inflows are more to be a little short.
addition, from the housing the supply of funds into the fund, the recent and long-term conditions are very much less optimistic. strong loan demand in developed coastal areas are often, but the housing fund in these areas in the coverage of workers is already high, reaching more than 70% deposit rate is also a high level, and in 7-12% of base salary, not much room for future growth in the amount of imputation. In particular, the critical economic situation this year, the growth in the amount of imputation would be quite weak.
when substantial parts of the housing provident fund loans adjustment and use conditions, if the macroeconomic situation remains stable, the demand for loans is likely to outbreaks. in Shanghai. Shanghai Housing Fund in 2006 to adjust policy to the purchase of housing accumulation fund loan conditions relaxation from the past two years to six months total deposit, lending ceiling from the previous 150,000 yuan per household to 20 million, will fund additional 5 million line of credit by the household increased to 10 million. In year fund loan interest rates and commercial lending rate is only 1.2 percentage points worse case, is still a direct result of new provident fund loans doubled in a year, an increase of 108% during the year 2007, loans up 54% off than in 2006. But imputation on the amount of housing provident fund over the same period grew by only 2.62%, respectively, and 13.4%. Thus, the Shanghai Housing Fund in 2005 a loan rate is still only 65.4% in 2006, rose to 70.5%, 86.3% and achieved the end of 2007. < br> When the housing accumulation fund loan demand really as some local policy makers had hoped that the suddenly increased, while there was insufficient capital supply sources, it is easy payments crisis occurs. Once that happens, not only will the reputation of the housing provident fund and credit would constitute a serious blow, but in turn will allow the public to the Social Security accounts, health insurance accounts and other credit-related funds have to question, and even other financial systems would have a ripple effect.
seems very safe and is the reason why ease the housing accumulation fund system in the br> provident fund management center CPF savings deposited with independently, provident fund loans, loan bad debt management, liquidity control and a series of specialized financial institutions, financial management capacity was available.
imputation and use of housing fund is very regionalized, and the This form of housing provident fund serious regional imbalance. economically developed areas, the real estate market boom, loans to home buyers in general, the loan continues to grow, or even a shortage of funds; relatively less developed regions, small loans, a large amount of precipitation. Housing the implementation of territorial division of the closed fund management, inter-regional transfers of funds can not call each other, resulting in some cities, no credit money loans, some cities have credit money situation. At the same time fund the loan portfolio will not result in adequate risk diversification . segmentation of housing provident fund management localization of both the housing fund of funds resulted in the inefficient in the overall configuration of the system brings the risk of local resistance to the lower, which are the source of liquidity risk.
operating and non-professional localization segmentation system, these two features are in the development of housing provident fund left by history, but today has been completely unable to meet the development requirements of the new situation must be reformed as soon as possible, otherwise it is difficult to ensure the long-term development prospects of the housing provident fund.
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