09 stocks on the number of basic judgments
2008 there was only the last three trading days. Most investors are investing in the layout for next year's biggest confusion is encountered: uncertainty. However, if the uncertainty in the best of uncertainty,UGG boots clearance, or the stock market can make some basic judgments 09.
1. on the U.S. financial crisis. Nowadays, a considerable number of people with this crisis compared to the global economic crisis of 1929, come in at least will continue 5m10 conclusion, they put the world, including China's economic, financial, as the pessimism into the long-term uncertainties. But I think, fourth U.S. president in office of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the financial crisis have more reference value to judge because he is The formation of the U.S. financial crisis, the most direct insiders, participation and stakeholders. I remember early in 2008 he issued a flew statement: at the end of a turnaround. China's economy, exports and performance of listed companies in a very bad quarter and first half, and use a , uncertainty in some of the most fundamental uncertainties such as the Central Government has put in 4 trillion, with the local government invested 18 trillion, to maintain growth, and promote foreign trade, the policy of expanding domestic demand, will be able to be effective. Another example is the National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping, said recently: in 2009 China's GDP will grow 8m9%, exports will grow by 18%. and so forecast 2009 growth performance of listed companies at least 10m15%. These should be the world's most beautiful countries of the respondents. because reform the past 30 years, the Chinese government's economic holdings each year are all over-achieving goals, this is the biggest uncertainty.
3. about the size of the non-reduction. The data show that 2009 is the size of the amount of non-lifting of the ban in 2008 4.54 times, it seems that is impossible to determine the reduction of the amount. However, where there are uncertainties. First, the lifting of the ban next year, is the largest major non-central level, in fact, rather than their reduction of pressure 08 is also non-state non-small should be small, probably most of the lock, because the SASAC director next year, on Friday also stressed the central enterprises to continue to overweight. Second, the size of 08 non-reduction process can be found in a regular pattern, although the size of the non-holding cost is very low , but they also talk about value,UGG boots cheap, the 2000 points below the 15 times price-earnings ratio below 1.5 times the net rate of the following, are rarely willing to throw. For example, this week lifted the China Pacific Insurance, the net assets of 6.38 yuan, 1.5 times its market that the net rate of 9.57 yuan; Monday lifted the Hai Tong Securities, the net assets of 4.59 yuan, 1.5 times its book value is 6.89 yuan, which is the size of two shares of non-reduction of the limit price, but also secondary market investors to buy The floor price.
4. on the market, investment themes. Many people believe that the funds are not optimistic about 2009 economy, not as the broader market trend of the weak heavyweight, despite a period of time to stock market hot, but they are the behavior of hot money Therefore, in 2009 uncertain market investment themes. In fact,bailey UGG boots, the market for 1664 points m2100 point, not only as it is hot money. and a considerable portion of the old and new funds and industrial capital to join them. This round of the market has in fact established in 2009 the stock market The three investment themes. First, with 4 trillion of infrastructure investment-related topics,UGG bailey button, such as cement, building materials, construction, railways, power plants, machinery and equipment; the second is with the 2009 expansion to the GEM-based linked to the low price small-cap stocks, high-growth performance of small plates, share the theme of high expansion; third, leading the central SASAC and local state-owned enterprises mergers and acquisitions restructuring theme.
5. run on the index space. agencies generally the main run forecast range of 09 To 1600m2400 point, a minimum of 1,200 points, up to 4,000 points. Among them, the more gold when the company forecast in 1800 and 20% of the bottom space, is the most worrisome uncertainty. However, due to, 06 unilateral increase of 07 city, 08 years is unilateral or city, and quickly fell back to 18-year stock market average and 14 times 1600 price-earnings ratio of the value of the center, dividend rates than bank interest rate, it can be determined, in 2009 the stock market will be a balanced market, box-shaped shock city, city band, the index space, though limited, but opportunities are quite large stocks.
6. on the winter planting. a time when winter planting season, but the volume contraction that most 09 people were unable to determine where the lowest index, but one thing is sure, based on 18 years of China's stock market operation rules, not the stock market only a year and no lower shadow on the shadow line, in the year-end closing index of the market, at least in the following year are high in the upper shadow chance to throw. Even in cattle is transferred bears this year. For example, closing the end of 2000 2073 points, rose to 2245 points in 2001; the end of 2007 close 5264 points, also rose in 2008 over 5522 points . Therefore, in 2008 the three days ending in 1850 near the ; harvest
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